The 2025 Formula 1 season was widely anticipated to feature a dramatic internal title fight between McLaren teammates Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. With McLaren emerging as the dominant force, all eyes were on the clash between these two talented young drivers, with expectations of a fiery confrontation lasting all the way to Abu Dhabi. However, with 17 of 24 rounds completed, the championship battle has not unfolded according to the “classic” script many had predicted.

On paper, the situation remains incredibly close. The points gap between Piastri and Norris has rarely exceeded 30 points. Both have secured victories and frequently qualified at the front of the grid. Yet, the narrative of a fierce, head-to-head showdown has failed to truly ignite. Momentum has shifted in short bursts, but season-defining swings have been few and far between.

The recent Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku starkly illustrated this pattern. What began as a routine weekend for McLaren transformed into one of the most eventful and decisive rounds of the year. The race exposed weaknesses on both sides of the McLaren garage and, more significantly, allowed a third driver, Max Verstappen, to re-enter the conversation for the world championship.

Piastri Falters, Norris Hesitates, and Verstappen Rises

Heading into Azerbaijan, Oscar Piastri appeared to be in complete command of his first genuine championship campaign. The Australian driver had built a reputation for calm precision and an ability to score heavily even on difficult days. He arrived in Baku with a 31-point lead over Norris and a string of flawless weekends behind him. The math was simple: by matching Norris’s results and avoiding unnecessary risks, he could protect his advantage and keep Verstappen at a safe distance.

However, from the opening practice sessions, small signs of discomfort began to emerge. Piastri never seemed entirely at ease with the car on the Baku City Circuit’s long straights and heavy braking zones. Typically, practice sessions reveal little about car setup, but in hindsight, these early struggles hinted at what was to come.

Qualifying confirmed this shift. In the decisive Q3 segment, Piastri crashed heading into Turn 3—a rare, costly, and frankly unnecessary mistake. This incident forced him to start from ninth, an uncharacteristic setback for a driver known as one of the most precise on the grid. For Norris, it was an unexpected opportunity for a major counterattack. However, he too failed to capitalize fully, delivering a messy final lap that only secured him seventh on the starting grid. What could have been a major turning point for the British driver became a missed chance.

As for the race itself, it unraveled almost immediately for Piastri. He jumped the start, then stalled, dropping him to the back of the pack. He then received a 5-second penalty. Before he could settle into a rhythm and attempt a recovery, he locked up at Turn 5 after an overly aggressive move and hit the wall on the opening lap. His race was over before it had truly begun. It was the kind of error that had been entirely absent from his season so far.

Meanwhile, Norris’s progress was hampered by losing positions at both the start and after a safety car restart, as well as a slow pit stop and other operational missteps within the McLaren team. He ultimately finished seventh, though he could have potentially finished in fifth. He gained six points on his teammate, reducing the deficit to 25, but the margin could have been much larger. The race presented a perfect storm of opportunity, but not the decisive blow Norris might have hoped for. While the points swing was modest, the psychological implications could be far more significant.

Piastri’s season to date had been built on a perception of unshakable composure. Baku was the first time that image cracked. A jump start, a crash in qualifying, and an opening-lap accident are not the hallmarks of a driver in total control.

Norris, for his part, has faced his own questions about composure under pressure, but Baku gave him reason to believe that the championship’s momentum can still shift. He didn’t fully capitalize, but he left Azerbaijan six points closer to Piastri than when he arrived.

The other notable beneficiary of McLaren’s off-weekend was Max Verstappen. Just a few races earlier, after round 15 in Zandvoort, Verstappen trailed Piastri by 104 points and Norris by 70. Two consecutive wins, first at Monza and then at Baku, have slashed those gaps to 69 and 44 points, respectively.

For much of the season, Red Bull’s RB21 lacked the consistent race-day pace to challenge McLaren, although it was never as bad as some Verstappen loyalists might suggest. However, incremental updates and a better understanding of their car’s operating window have begun to pay dividends. Verstappen’s victories at circuits favoring straight-line speed and aerodynamic efficiency have highlighted that progress, as well as the characteristics of their car.

With seven rounds remaining, he cannot be completely ruled out. The numbers still demand a near-perfect run of results, but he could reduce the deficit to a level comparable to Kimi Räikkönen’s late-season comeback in 2007, when a series of wins and rival missteps overturned a seemingly settled championship.

Challenges for McLaren and Mounting Pressure

Beyond individual driver errors, McLaren itself faces questions after the last two rounds. At Monza and Baku, the MCL39 did not display the same dominance seen earlier in the season. Both circuits reward low drag and top-end speed—areas where Red Bull typically excels and McLaren has been less competitive.

However, operational errors have compounded the challenge. Persistent slow pit stops, strategic miscalculations, and communication lapses have cost both drivers valuable points. These details are critical in a tight championship. Piastri’s crash may dominate the headlines, but a flawless pit stop for Norris in Baku could have yielded an extra four points—small numbers that often prove decisive in the final reckoning.

The next race in Singapore represents a critical moment for all three protagonists. McLaren’s car concept is expected to suit the slower corners and heavy braking zones of Marina Bay far better than the long straights of Monza and Baku. In 2024, Norris won the race by 21 seconds, underscoring McLaren’s potential on this type of circuit.

Meanwhile, Red Bull struggled badly in 2023, with Verstappen finishing only fifth, and while they improved to second in 2024, Singapore remains a track where they have rarely dominated.

For Piastri, Singapore offers a chance to reset. A strong, mistake-free weekend would reassert his control and dispel questions about Baku being the start of a late-season wobble. For Norris, the assignment is to keep chipping away at the lead. He has already gained a combined nine points on Piastri in the last two races and needs to continue that trend. Verstappen, meanwhile, can afford to be aggressive with little to lose. He will look to exploit any hesitation or further McLaren errors.

The current dynamics are reminiscent of previous late-season shifts in Formula 1 history. Räikkönen’s 2007 surge remains the most famous, but there are others. Alain Prost overturned a 23-point deficit in 1986 when reliability issues struck Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet, and Sebastian Vettel’s sequence of four straight wins in 2012 snatched the title from Fernando Alonso. In each case, a championship that once seemed locked down changed dramatically as pressure mounted and small mistakes accumulated.

For McLaren, the lesson is clear: a car capable of winning almost everywhere provides no guarantee of a title if points are left on the table. Even when Verstappen was more than 100 points adrift, the risk of a comeback was never completely eliminated.

Seven races remain. Circuits like Singapore, Austin, Mexico City, and Sao Paulo all reward high downforce and mechanical grip—areas where McLaren is expected to excel. On paper, that should favor Piastri and Norris. Yet, the same was said about earlier rounds where strategic or operational issues compromised their results.

For Piastri, the challenge is twofold: to restore the rhythm that defined his first 16 races and to demonstrate that Baku was a one-off. For Norris, the mission is to transform small gains into significant pressure. And for Verstappen, the opportunity is to extend his winning run and continue to erode the gap, forcing McLaren to respond.

Baku may ultimately be remembered as a turning point. It condensed the gaps in the championship standings, punctured Piastri’s aura of invincibility, and revived interest in a potential three-way fight. Whether it proves to be a brief disturbance or the moment the 2025 season truly ignites will depend on what unfolds in Singapore and beyond. The next phase of the season will test every dimension of a championship campaign: car development, team execution, and above all, the mental resilience of the drivers. If McLaren rediscovers its early-season consistency, the title could still remain an internal affair. If not, the door is open for one of Formula 1’s great late-season twists.