From its very outset, the 2025 Formula 1 season was widely predicted to be the stage for a fiery internal battle between two McLaren teammates. With the Woking-based team emerging as the dominant force, the scene was set for Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris to push each other to the absolute limit, fighting for every single point until the final race in Abu Dhabi. A palpable excitement gripped the motorsport world, painting a picture of a classic duel where talent and willpower would be honed with every lap. Yet, with 17 of the 24 rounds completed, reality has not quite mirrored those initial predictions. Although the points gap between Piastri and Norris has rarely exceeded 30, and both drivers have secured victories and consistently qualified at the front, the narrative of a fight-to-the-death has struggled to truly ignite.

Momentum has shifted only in short bursts, rather than in the kind of season-defining swings that create legends. However, everything changed swiftly and dramatically at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku. This race, initially seen as just another “routine” weekend for McLaren, suddenly became one of the most eventful and revealing rounds of the year. It not only exposed weaknesses on both sides of the McLaren garage but also, unexpectedly, opened the door for a third driver—Max Verstappen—to re-enter the conversation for the world championship.

Before arriving in Azerbaijan, Oscar Piastri appeared to be in complete command of his first genuine championship campaign. The Australian driver had built a reputation for calm precision, demonstrating an ability to bank strong points even on his most difficult days. He arrived in Baku with a 31-point lead over Norris and a string of flawless weekends behind him. The formula for victory seemed straightforward: match Norris’s results, avoid unnecessary risks, and he could defend his cushion while keeping Verstappen at a safe distance.

However, from the very first free practice sessions, small signs of discomfort began to emerge. Piastri never seemed fully at ease with the car on the Baku City Circuit’s long straights and heavy braking zones. Normally, practice sessions reveal little beyond setup work, but in hindsight, these early struggles hinted at what was to come. Qualifying confirmed the worrying shift. In the decisive Q3 segment, Piastri made an error and hit the wall heading into turn three—a rare, costly, and frankly unnecessary mistake. This crash forced him to start from ninth on the grid, an uncharacteristic setback for a driver who had previously been among the most precise on the circuit.

For Norris, this was an unexpected opportunity to mount a serious counterattack. Yet, he too fell short, delivering a scrappy final lap that left him only seventh on the grid. What could have been a major turning point for the British driver became a missed chance.

And then, the main race began. For Piastri, it unraveled almost immediately. He jumped the start, then stalled, dropping him to the back of the grid. As if that wasn’t enough, he was handed a 5-second penalty. Before he could settle into a rhythm and attempt to climb back up the field, he locked up at turn five after an overzealous move and hit the wall on the opening lap. His race was over before it had truly begun. It was the kind of error that had been entirely absent from his season so far.

Meanwhile, Norris found his progress hampered, losing positions after both the race start and a later safety car restart. A slow pit stop and other operational missteps within the McLaren team further compromised his race. Ultimately, he finished in seventh place. He could have finished in P5. He did gain six points on his teammate, reducing the deficit to 25, but the margin could have been much larger. The race offered a perfect storm of opportunity, but not the decisive blow that Norris might have hoped for.

While the point swing was modest, the psychological implications could be far more significant. Piastri’s season to date had been built on an image of unshakable composure. Baku was the first time that image cracked. A jump start, a crash in qualifying, and an opening-lap accident are not the hallmarks of a driver in total control. Norris, for his part, has faced his own questions about composure under pressure, but Baku gave him reason to believe that the momentum of the championship can still change. He didn’t fully capitalize, but he left Azerbaijan six points closer to Piastri than when he arrived.

The other notable beneficiary of McLaren’s off-weekend was Max Verstappen. Only a few races earlier, after round 15 in Zandvoort, Verstappen trailed Piastri by 104 points and Norris by 70. Two consecutive wins, first at Monza and then at Baku, have cut those gaps to 69 and 44 points, respectively. For much of the season, Red Bull’s RB21 lacked the consistent race-day pace to challenge McLaren, even if it wasn’t as bad as some Verstappen loyalists might claim. However, incremental updates and a stronger understanding of their operating window have begun to pay off. Verstappen’s victories at circuits favoring straight-line speed and aerodynamic efficiency have highlighted that progress, as well as the characteristics of their car.

With seven rounds remaining, he cannot be fully ruled out. The numbers still demand a near-perfect run of results, but he could reduce the deficit to a level that invites comparison with Kimi Räikkönen’s late-season comeback in 2007, when a series of wins and rival missteps turned an apparently settled championship upside down.

Beyond individual driver errors, McLaren themselves face questions. Over the last two rounds at Monza and Baku, the MCL39 has not displayed the same dominance seen earlier in the season. Both circuits reward low drag and top-end speed—areas where Red Bull traditionally excels and McLaren has been less competitive. But operational mistakes have compounded the challenge. Persistent slow pit stops, strategy miscalculations, and communication lapses have cost both drivers valuable points. These details matter in a tight championship. Piastri’s crash may dominate the headlines, but a flawless pit stop for Norris in Baku could have yielded an extra four points—small numbers that often prove decisive in the final reckoning.

The next race in Singapore represents a critical moment for all three protagonists. McLaren’s car concept is expected to suit Marina Bay’s slower corners and heavy braking zones far better than the long straights of Monza and Baku. In 2024, Norris won the race by 21 seconds, underlining McLaren’s potential on this type of circuit. Red Bull, meanwhile, struggled badly in 2023, with Verstappen finishing only fifth, and while they improved to second in 2024, Singapore remains a track where they have rarely dominated.

For Piastri, Singapore offers a chance to reset. A strong, mistake-free weekend would reassert his control and dispel questions about Baku being the start of a late-season wobble. For Norris, the assignment is to keep chipping away at the lead—he has already gained nine points on Piastri over the last two races combined and needs to continue that trend. Verstappen, meanwhile, can afford to be aggressive with little to lose. He will look to exploit any hesitation or further McLaren errors.

The current dynamics invite comparisons with previous late-season shifts in Formula 1 history. Räikkönen’s 2007 surge remains the most famous, but there are others: Alain Prost overturning a 23-point deficit in 1986 when reliability issues struck Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet, or Sebastian Vettel’s sequence of four straight wins in 2012 to snatch the title from Fernando Alonso. In each case, a championship that once seemed locked down changed dramatically when pressure mounted and small mistakes accumulated.

For McLaren, the lesson is clear: a car capable of winning almost everywhere provides no guarantee of a title if points are left on the table. Even when Verstappen was more than 100 points adrift, the risk of a comeback was never completely eliminated. Seven races remain, with circuits like Singapore, Austin, Mexico City, and Sao Paulo rewarding high downforce and mechanical grip—areas where McLaren is expected to excel. On paper, that should favor Piastri and Norris. Yet, the same was said about earlier rounds where strategic or operational issues compromised results.

For Piastri, the challenge is twofold: to restore the rhythm that defined his first 16 races and to demonstrate that Baku was a one-off. For Norris, the mission is to transform small gains into meaningful pressure. And for Verstappen, the opportunity is to extend his winning run and continue to erode the gap, forcing McLaren to respond.

Baku may ultimately be remembered as a turning point. It condensed the gaps in the championship table, punctured Piastri’s aura of invulnerability, and revived interest in a potential three-way fight. Whether it proves to be a brief disturbance or the moment the 2025 season truly ignites will depend on what unfolds in Singapore and beyond. The next phase of the season will test every dimension of a championship campaign: car development, team execution, and above all, the mental resilience of the drivers. If McLaren rediscovers its early-season consistency, the title could still remain an internal affair. If not, the door is open for one of Formula 1’s great late-season twists.