The world of Formula 1 is no stranger to surprises and dramatic turns of events, especially when it comes to the future of drivers. One of the most intriguing stories of the current season is the situation surrounding Liam Lawson and his potential return to Red Bull Racing. As the season progresses, a series of surprising developments and shifting circumstances could pave the way for Lawson to reclaim a spot in one of the most prestigious teams in motorsport. But how likely is this, and what does it mean for the future of Yuki Tsunoda?

A Challenging Season for Red Bull’s Second Seat

At the heart of this unfolding drama is Red Bull Racing, the dominant team in Formula 1 for the past several seasons. While Max Verstappen continues to dominate the driver’s standings, Red Bull has been facing increasing pressure to secure strong performances from their second driver. This has been especially noticeable in the context of the 2023 season, where Verstappen is carrying the team almost single-handedly. The lack of consistent performance from Tsunoda, combined with the strong showing from Lawson, has led to increased speculation about a potential reshuffle for the 2026 season.

Tsunoda, despite being with Red Bull-affiliated teams since 2021, has failed to make a significant impact. While the expectations for the Japanese driver were high, he has only managed to score a disappointing seven points. In stark contrast, Lawson, who started his F1 journey with less fanfare, has accumulated 20 points, just two points behind his teammate Isack Hadjar, who has been a standout rookie. Lawson’s surge in form has caught the attention of Red Bull, making him a potential candidate for a seat in the main Red Bull Racing team.

The Changing Dynamics of Red Bull Racing

The potential for a driver change at Red Bull Racing comes at a critical time. With the team facing challenges regarding their engine development, particularly as Audi is poised to enter the sport in 2026, Red Bull will need to make strategic decisions to ensure that they remain competitive. Having a strong second driver to support Verstappen, both in terms of performance and as a team player, will be essential for their continued success. If Red Bull is to maintain their dominance, they cannot afford to have another season where they only score points through Verstappen.

In this context, Lawson’s performances have been hard to ignore. After a disappointing start with Red Bull, Lawson has shown considerable improvement during his time with AlphaTauri (formerly known as Toro Rosso). His results, including a sixth-place finish in Austria and eighth-place finishes in both Belgium and Hungary, have been particularly impressive. His ability to hold off Verstappen during the Hungarian Grand Prix was a clear signal that Lawson is capable of handling the pressure that comes with racing for Red Bull.

When asked about his future, Lawson has kept a level-headed approach, focusing on the task at hand rather than getting caught up in the drama of potential seat changes. He stated, “Honestly, in terms of my future, it’s been so busy this year that I’m not really thinking about it right now. I’m focused on having some good races.” Lawson’s mature perspective and strong results suggest that he is ready to fight for his place in F1, regardless of the uncertainty surrounding his future.

Tsunoda’s Struggles and the Question of a 2026 Exit

For Tsunoda, however, the situation is much more precarious. Despite being a Red Bull protégé and enjoying the support of Honda, his performance has not met the team’s expectations. The fact that Tsunoda doesn’t have a contract for the 2024 season adds to the uncertainty surrounding his future. If Red Bull were to make a move for Lawson or another driver, it could very well signal the end of Tsunoda’s F1 career, at least with Red Bull-affiliated teams.

Helmut Marko, the senior advisor of Red Bull Racing, has been vocal in his criticism of Tsunoda, stating that “Beating Max is currently impossible” and that Tsunoda needs to get the best out of himself and the team. This statement highlights the pressure that Tsunoda is under to perform at a high level. While Marko has acknowledged that Tsunoda has had some positive moments, the overall picture has not been good enough for Red Bull to commit to him beyond 2025.

Tsunoda’s situation is complicated further by the growing competition for Red Bull’s second seat. If Lawson or Hadjar were to replace Tsunoda, the seat at AlphaTauri could go to Red Bull’s rising star, Avid Lindlad. Lindlad, a current Formula 2 driver, is showing a lot of promise, and Red Bull is keen to fast-track his development into F1. This could spell the end of Tsunoda’s time with Red Bull, as he may not find another seat in F1, especially if teams like Cadillac decide to go in a different direction.

The Role of Mecky’s Leadership

Lauren Mecky, who currently serves as the team principal of both AlphaTauri and Red Bull, has a crucial role to play in the decisions surrounding Tsunoda and Lawson. Mecky has been supportive of Tsunoda, stating that the team is focusing on giving him what he needs to perform better. “The priority is to give Yuki what he needs to perform. We are concentrating on that,” Mecky explained. This commitment to Tsunoda is not surprising, as Red Bull has a history of standing by their drivers in difficult times.

However, Mecky’s loyalty to Tsunoda may be tested if the Japanese driver fails to deliver the results that Red Bull needs. If Lawson or Hadjar continues to show better performances, the pressure on Red Bull to make a change will only increase. And with the uncertainty surrounding Tsunoda’s contract for 2024 and beyond, it’s possible that Red Bull could decide to move in a different direction.

The Big Question: Lawson vs. Tsunoda

As we approach the 2026 season, the question remains: who is the better option for Red Bull’s second seat? Lawson has shown that he can compete at a high level, and his recent performances have proven that he is more than capable of handling the pressures of F1. Tsunoda, on the other hand, has been inconsistent and has failed to deliver the results expected of him. The decision will ultimately come down to Red Bull’s assessment of Lawson’s long-term potential and whether they believe that he can support Verstappen in the future.

In terms of competition, Lawson is certainly a strong contender for the seat. His ability to adapt to different conditions, his resilience after a difficult start, and his current form all make him a promising candidate. However, the challenge of returning to Red Bull, after a less-than-ideal debut, could make things difficult for him.

Conclusion: Is Tsunoda’s Career at Risk?

The situation for Yuki Tsunoda is becoming increasingly precarious. With his contract up for renewal and Red Bull looking for stronger results from their second seat, Tsunoda could be in danger of losing his place in F1 altogether. If Red Bull were to decide to replace him with Lawson or another driver, Tsunoda’s F1 future could be in doubt. Teams like Cadillac may be interested in signing him, but if they choose not to, Tsunoda could be left without a seat in 2026.

On the other hand, Lawson’s resurgence is a testament to his determination and skill. Despite the setbacks, he has proven that he belongs in F1, and he is making a compelling case for a spot in Red Bull Racing. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether Tsunoda can retain his seat, or if Lawson will take his place at the head of Red Bull’s driver lineup. The competition is fierce, and it is clear that the landscape of Red Bull Racing’s driver lineup is about to change dramatically in the coming seasons.