In the high-stakes, adrenaline-fueled world of Formula 1, a driver’s success is measured in milliseconds, and their future can be decided in a single, cold sentence. For Yuki Tsunoda, that sentence was delivered just moments after what looked like the breakthrough weekend he had been fighting for.

His performance in Austin was, by many measures, a triumph. The Japanese driver was a man renewed, seeming “sharper, braver, and more composed than ever”. With two seventh-place finishes and a haul of eight valuable points, Tsunoda gave his Red Bull team something to smile about. His opening laps were pure fire, a stunning display of the “fearless aggression” that once marked him as one of the grid’s most electrifying prospects. Fans watching worldwide felt it: Yuki had rediscovered his spark.

But inside the Red Bull garage, the smiles faded as quickly as they appeared. Team Principal Laurent Mekies cut through the celebration with the cold precision of a surgeon. When asked about the performance, his response was chilling: “is this enough no”.

It wasn’t said with anger. It was delivered with the “cold realism” of an organization that doesn’t measure success in points, but in podiums. For a squad chasing the giants of Ferrari and Mercedes in the constructor’s championship, “decent doesn’t cut it”.

That single, brutal assessment has ripped open the speculation around Formula 1’s most coveted and cursed seat: the second cockpit at Red Bull Racing. Tsunoda’s strong, clean drives in Austin were, on paper, exactly what a team needs. Yet, they did nothing to shift the bigger picture. He still lacked the final few tenths that separate the good from the great, and in a team led by a generational talent, that gap is a chasm.

This year’s F1 title fight has felt strange, as if every team is running two separate races within its own garage. But nowhere is that gap wider than at Red Bull. Max Verstappen, the team’s number one, is “operating in a completely different universe”. As he calmly dictated the race from the front in Austin, controlling every lap “like a master conductor”, Tsunoda was miles behind, scrapping in the midfield for the points his teammate doesn’t even think about.

The numbers are damning. Of Red Bull’s 331 points, Max Verstappen alone has scored 306. It is an “extraordinary level of dependence on one driver”, and it leaves the team vulnerable. Mekies politely reminded the press of Tsunoda’s role: “we need Yuki’s points” to secure their position in the standings, where they trail Ferrari by just three points and Mercedes by ten.

The message was clear: stay out of trouble, bring the car home, and keep scoring. But the subtext was even clearer: you are not Max, and you will never be.

As if that pressure wasn’t enough, Tsunoda is also shouldering a heavier technical burden. With Verstappen sitting out the first practice session in Mexico to allow rookie Arvid Lindblad his debut, Tsunoda will be solely responsible for gathering the “crucial setup data that can make or break a race weekend”. It’s a chance to prove his worth beyond raw speed, to show he can be a consistent, technical backbone for the team.

But it may be too little, too late.

When confronted directly about the massive time gap between his two drivers, Mekies didn’t hold back. “we always want more,” he said firmly. “i’m not going to say this was enough because you’re right about the difference nobody feels this was good enough and Yuki doesn’t either.”

He praised Tsunoda’s “incredible starts”—jumping from 18th to 7th in the sprint and 13th to 9th in the Grand Prix—but immediately followed it with that same damning verdict: “is this enough no”.

The words hit hard. In a team obsessed with perfection, being good is simply not good enough. The cold, precise tone from management suggests a decision is not just coming, but has already been made.

Now, a shocking leak has put a timeline on the execution. The announcement for Verstappen’s 2026 teammate is expected to be made imminently, just after the Mexican Grand Prix. The contenders have been narrowed to two, and one of them isn’t even in Formula 1.

Liam Lawson, once considered a serious contender, is reportedly out of the race. The final choice is between Yuki Tsunoda and a 21-year-old French rookie, Isaac Hadjar.

Hadjar’s rise has been quiet but deeply impressive. In his debut F2 season, he’s earned 39 points and a podium, building a “reputation for composure and consistency”—two traits Red Bull values highly but has rarely found in its young drivers. Initial concerns about whether he could handle the pressure of racing alongside Verstappen are fading. According to Dutch reports, Hadjar’s “calm driving style focus under pressure and disciplined approach” have captured the attention of senior figures at Milton Keynes.

He is, in every way, the anti-Tsunoda.

Yuki remains a “fan favorite for his fiery personality and passion”. But those same traits are his greatest liability. His “emotional radio outbursts and inconsistent weekends” have reinforced the image of a driver who is exciting but, ultimately, unpredictable.

The political landscape has also shifted beneath his feet. His valuable connection to Honda, Red Bull’s current engine partner, becomes a complication when Ford arrives as the new power unit partner for 2026. Dropping Tsunoda could upset Japanese stakeholders, but keeping him might be seen as a “sentimental decision rather than a strategic one”.

Hadjar represents a fresh start. He is “free from baggage or expectation”, young, adaptable, and perfectly fits Red Bull’s long-term vision for their new Ford-powered era. Choosing him would signal a fundamental shift in philosophy: a move away from emotion and raw spectacle, and toward balance and calculated consistency.

As the F1 circus heads to Mexico, the spotlight isn’t just on Verstappen’s inevitable dominance. It’s on the quiet, brutal battle for the second seat. Yuki Tsunoda has one final weekend to prove himself, one last chance to turn Mekies’ “not enough” into “maybe just enough”.

But as the time ticks down toward the rumored announcement, the question that lingers in the paddock is the same one Mekies asked and answered with such brutal honesty. Deep down, it feels like Red Bull has already made up its mind.