In the unforgiving world of Formula 1, a rapid ascent often comes with unimaginable pressure, and no one feels this more acutely than the young prodigy Kimi Antonelli. Once hailed as the “next Max Verstappen,” Antonelli was fast-tracked directly into the main Mercedes team, bypassing the traditional “apprenticeship” at smaller outfits. This bold move, intended to forge a new star, is now morphing into a nightmare, casting a shadow of uncertainty over his future in the prestigious racing series.

A Dream Start and Glimmers of Promise

Kimi Antonelli’s junior career was a string of dazzling, almost flawless successes. He consistently claimed victory in Italian F4, Formula 4, the Formula Regional Middle East Championship, and the Formula Regional European Championship. These consecutive titles built an impressive resume that left scouts and fans in awe. Even finishing sixth in Formula 2—a result many believe didn’t fully reflect his true talent due to the series’ fierce competition—Antonelli was still regarded as one of the brightest talents of his generation.

It was this brilliant track record that convinced Toto Wolff, the Mercedes team principal, to take a massive gamble on Antonelli. Wolff, who had long regretted missing the opportunity to sign Max Verstappen, saw astonishing parallels in Antonelli: phenomenal junior-level speed and an occasional “over-the-top” tendency on the track. Hoping to replicate Red Bull’s success with Verstappen, Mercedes made a bold decision: to promote Antonelli directly to F1 without a stint at a satellite team like Alpine or Williams. This was a completely different approach from how they handled George Russell, who spent several seasons at Williams before getting the call-up.

Immense Pressure and a Volatile Beginning

Antonelli’s first F1 season began in Australia amidst chaos. Getting knocked out in Q1 during qualifying wasn’t a great start, but when the heavens opened on Sunday, Antonelli showcased his mettle. He was one of only two rookies to finish the race unscathed, crossing the line in an impressive fourth place—a performance that made many believe he truly had the makings of a champion. His qualifying form continued to improve over the next few races, and the points began to roll in, culminating in a sprint pole position at the Miami Grand Prix.

However, it was in Miami that things began to unravel. On a rain-slicked track, Antonelli battled fiercely with McLaren’s Oscar Piastri into the first corner, a duel that resulted in him going off-track and losing the lead. Things went from bad to worse when he had a minor collision with a Red Bull car in the pit lane, forcing him to make an extra pit stop on worn intermediate tires as the track dried. Although he still managed to score points, it was little consolation for a race where he could have clinched his first victory.

A String of Poor Performances and Shaken Faith

After Miami, misfortune seemed to cling to Antonelli. Power unit failures in Imola and Spain, coupled with a costly error in Monaco qualifying, halted his momentum. Canada appeared to be a strong comeback, with Mercedes having the fastest car on Sunday and Antonelli running in the podium places. He successfully fended off an attack from Piastri after a safety car period to secure his first-ever F1 podium. This was seen as a turning point, with the team’s new upgrade introduced at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix seemingly working wonders.

However, this upgrade masked a deeper problem. From early August, the car became increasingly difficult to handle, slowly eroding Antonelli’s confidence. This was particularly detrimental for a rookie already under immense pressure. His qualifying results began to plummet dramatically: 19th in Belgium and 15th in Hungary.

At his home race, the Italian Grand Prix, Antonelli’s struggles continued. He spun out and ended up in the gravel during FP2. Although qualifying was better with a sixth-place start, a poor launch from the grid once again saw him battling in the lower half of the top 10. “Underwhelming” was the word Toto Wolff used to describe Antonelli’s performance after the race—the first public sign of the Mercedes boss’s wavering faith in his young driver.

Serious Consequences and an Uncertain Future

Antonelli’s dip in form is having serious repercussions for Mercedes. The team is fighting for second place in the constructors’ championship against Ferrari and Red Bull, yet one of their drivers has fewer points than a Williams. This situation is particularly alarming as Mercedes prepares for the new regulations in 2026, where they are tipped to have one of the best packages. They are desperate to avoid a repeat of Red Bull’s 2024 scenario, where a lack of consistency from one driver nearly cost them the constructors’ title.

The reality is that F1 is as much a mental game as it is a physical one. We’ve seen prime examples of drivers with incredible form suddenly collapsing after a single difficult situation, such as Daniel Ricciardo at McLaren or Carlos Sainz currently at Williams. George Russell, during his time at Williams, was able to learn and correct his mistakes in a low-pressure environment, which helped him develop into a better driver. In stark contrast, Antonelli has been thrust directly into the spotlight at Mercedes, where expectations are sky-high and every mistake is magnified.

Mercedes now faces two difficult options. They could drop Antonelli, a move that many would consider overly harsh and unlikely. Alternatively, they could stick with him for one more season and re-evaluate his position for 2027. If, by then, he still hasn’t turned things around, Mercedes may have no choice but to look for another driver.

Kimi Antonelli’s future in F1 remains a massive question mark. Can he overcome this immense pressure, regain his confidence, and prove his talent, or will he become another prodigy who couldn’t live up to the hype, fading away in the relentless current of Formula 1? Only time will tell.