In the high-octane world of Formula 1, speed is everything. But off the track, in the polished corporate suites and hushed hospitality areas, a different kind of race is run—one of politics, potential, and brutal timing. As the 2025 season hurtles toward its conclusion, Red Bull Racing is poised to make an announcement that will send shockwaves through the entire driver market. Immediately following the Mexican Grand Prix, the world will learn who will have the most coveted—and perhaps most cursed—seat in motorsport: teammate to the generational talent, Max Verstappen, for the dawn of the 2026 regulations.

This isn’t just a simple hiring decision. It’s a high-stakes gamble that will define the team’s future, seal the fate of three young drivers, and perfectly illustrate the ruthless, cutthroat nature of the Red Bull junior program. The fight for the second seat has become a dramatic two-man showdown between 21-year-old rookie sensation Isack Hadjar and the incumbent, Yuki Tsunoda. And, in a twist that highlights the cruelty of the sport, the talented Liam Lawson, once seen as a surefire contender, is reportedly no longer even in consideration.

The paddock is buzzing, and all signs point to the young Frenchman. Isack Hadjar, the 21-year-old rookie, is the clear favorite to get the promotion. His debut season in Formula 1 hasn’t just been good; it’s been a revelation. Scoring 39 points and clinching a spectacular podium finish at Zandvoort, Hadjar has demonstrated a potent combination of raw speed and, more importantly, the mental fortitude to handle the immense pressure of F1’s midfield.

What has Red Bull management—led by the famously demanding Dr. Helmut Marco—so impressed is Hadjar’s steep and consistent learning curve. Initial concerns about throwing a rookie in next to a titan like Verstappen have evaporated. Race after race, Hadjar has delivered solid, intelligent performances, proving he isn’t just fast, but adaptable. Red Bull doesn’t just see a driver for 2026; they see a long-term strategic asset.

This decision is inextricably linked to Red Bull’s next great chapter: the 2026 regulations and the new engine partnership with Ford. Hadjar is seen as the future, a driver who can be molded and developed alongside Verstappen over multiple years. At 21, he has the time to learn from the best, absorb the team’s culture, and potentially, years down the line, become Red Bull’s next lead driver. He represents a clean slate, a perfect face for the new Red Bull-Ford era. The timing, it seems, is perfect for him.

But for every perfect beginning, there is often a painful end. For Yuki Tsunoda, this situation is nothing short of a nightmare. After years in the Red Bull ecosystem, Tsunoda finally achieved the dream promotion to the senior Red Bull Racing team at the start of 2025. This was supposed to be his chance to cement his place at the top. Instead, his season has been a frustrating study in inconsistency.

With just 25 points from 17 races, his performance hasn’t been disastrous, but it hasn’t been the resounding success needed to secure his future in what should be a highly competitive car. A recent surge in form, scoring points in three of the last five races, suggests he has found a new gear. The critical question is whether it’s too little, too late. The upcoming Mexican Grand Prix is no longer just another race for Tsunoda; it is his final, desperate audition. He must deliver a flawless, spectacular weekend to have any chance of changing the minds that seem to be already made up.

However, Tsunoda’s problems extend far beyond his on-track results. A seismic political shift is happening within Red Bull, and he is caught on the wrong side of it. His career has been inextricably linked to Honda, Red Bull’s departing engine partner. It’s widely reported that Honda’s backing, both political and financial, was a key factor in his promotion to the senior team. But as of 2026, Honda is out, and Ford is in.

With Honda’s protective influence gone, Tsunoda has lost his most powerful advocate. The decision-makers at Red Bull are now free to make a choice based on pure, cold calculations of performance and future potential, unencumbered by partnership obligations. The very support system that lifted him to the top has vanished, leaving him exposed at the most vulnerable moment of his career.

The consolation prize for Tsunoda, if you can call it that, is a bitter one. He is unlikely to be dropped from Formula 1 entirely. The most probable scenario sees him suffering the humiliation of a demotion, sent back down to the junior team, Racing Bulls, for 2026. After tasting life at the front of the grid, racing for wins and podiums, being sent back to the midfield would be a massive, demoralizing step backward. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but in the Red Bull universe, it beats the alternative: total expulsion.

And that alternative is exactly what Liam Lawson is now facing. Of the three drivers, Lawson’s fate is perhaps the most brutal and unjust. After years of diligently working his way up the Red Bull junior ladder, he proved his worth time and again. His substitute performances in 2024 were nothing short of spectacular, proving to the entire paddock that he has the talent, temperament, and resilience to be a full-time F1 driver. He did everything right.

And it mattered for nothing.

Reports confirm that Lawson is no longer an option for the 2026 Red Bull seat. His path is blocked. If Hadjar is promoted and Tsunoda is demoted, the Red Bull family is full. The other Racing Bulls seat is reportedly earmarked for another highly-rated junior, Arvid Lindblad. There is simply no room at the inn for Lawson.

This outcome is a perfect, painful encapsulation of the Red Bull driver program, which has earned its infamous reputation for being a toxic, high-pressure meat grinder that chews up young talent. Lawson has been caught in a perfect storm: Hadjar’s emergence was too impressive to ignore, and the political landscape shifted beneath his feet. Through no real fault of his own, a driver who has conclusively proven he belongs in F1 now finds himself on the outside looking in. His only realistic, and far from guaranteed, option is to plead his case with a rival team like Alpine, hoping they have a seat and are willing to take a chance on a Red Bull cast-off.

The tension between the drivers has become palpable in recent races, with on-track incidents betraying the immense pressure they are all under. They know they are fighting for their very careers, and only one can truly win.

This weekend’s Mexican Grand Prix is now freighted with unbearable tension. Every practice lap, every qualifying run, every strategic decision will be meticulously scrutinized by Red Bull management. For Tsunoda, it’s a last stand to save his seat. For Hadjar, it’s the final confirmation that he is ready for the promotion. For Lawson, it might be a painful weekend proving to the world what he’s worth, all while knowing it won’t be enough for the team he has dedicated his life to.

The announcement that will follow is about more than just a name on a car. It will reveal Red Bull’s entire philosophy as they head into the new era of Formula 1. By choosing Hadjar’s potential over Tsunoda’s experience, Red Bull would be making a clear statement: they are betting on the future and staying true to their ruthless, results-driven, and forward-looking identity, no matter the human cost. The thrones are set, the game is ending, and not everyone will survive the final cut.