In the high-stakes, high-speed world of Formula 1, job security is a fleeting illusion, especially within the notorious Red Bull driver program. As the F1 circus heads to Mexico City, the fate of three young drivers hangs precariously in the balance. Red Bull is poised to announce who will have the coveted, and perhaps cursed, seat alongside Max Verstappen for the critical 2026 season. According to reports from RTL, this seismic decision will be made public immediately after the Mexican Grand Prix, transforming this weekend’s race into a final, pressure-cooker audition for two drivers, and a potential career epitaph for a third.

This isn’t just about one seat. The decision will trigger a domino effect across both Red Bull-owned teams, defining their entire lineup as they enter a new regulatory era and a landmark partnership with Ford. The contenders have been whittled down to two: the incumbent, Yuki Tsunoda, and the meteoric rookie, Isack Hadjar. Conspicuously, shockingly, absent from that shortlist is Liam Lawson, a driver who, by all accounts, did everything right.

The paddock buzz is deafening, and it’s all pointing in one direction. 21-year-old French rookie Isack Hadjar is reportedly the clear favorite to get the promotion. His ascent has been nothing short of spectacular. In his debut Formula 1 season, Hadjar has been a revelation, racking up 39 points and securing a stunning podium finish at Zandvoort. He has silenced initial doubts about his readiness by demonstrating a potent combination of raw speed, remarkable consistency, and an ability to handle immense pressure.

What makes Hadjar the golden boy for Red Bull management? It’s all about the future. The 2026 regulations represent a hard reset for the sport, and Red Bull’s new alliance with Ford demands a fresh face. Hadjar is seen as the perfect long-term investment, a driver who can be molded and developed alongside Verstappen for years to come. At 21, he has time to learn from the reigning champion and, Red Bull hopes, eventually mature into a lead driver himself. He represents the future of the Red Bull-Ford partnership, a clean break from the Honda past that his rival, Yuki Tsunoda, embodies.

For Tsunoda, the situation is infinitely more complex and increasingly desperate. After being promoted to the senior Red Bull team at the start of 2025, his season has been a turbulent mix of flashing potential and frustrating inconsistency. With just 25 points from 17 races, his return on investment has not been what the team’s exacting management, led by the infamously impatient Dr. Helmut Marko, demands from a car that should be fighting near the front.

But Tsunoda’s biggest problem isn’t just on the track; it’s political. His entire career has been passionately backed by Honda. That support system, which reportedly paid for his promotion to the senior team, evaporates at the end of this season. As Honda exits and Ford enters, the political landscape within Red Bull has been completely reshaped. Tsunoda has lost his most powerful advocate. The decision is now based on pure performance and future potential, metrics that are currently favoring his rookie rival.

To his credit, Tsunoda appears to be fighting for his life. He has shown a recent surge in form, scoring points in three of the last five race weekends. It’s a defiant stand, a clear sign he’s found a better rhythm at the best possible time. But the looming question is a cruel one: Is it too little, too late? Has Hadjar’s consistent brilliance already made this late-season push irrelevant?

Mexico is, without exaggeration, Tsunoda’s last stand. He needs nothing short of a perfect weekend to have any chance of changing Red Bull’s mind. Even if he fails, he likely won’t be dropped from Formula 1 entirely. The most probable, and most painful, scenario is a humiliating demotion back to the junior team, Racing Bulls, for 2026. After just one season at the senior team, being sent back down would be a bitter pill to swallow and a massive step backward in his career. It’s a fate that highlights the brutal, unsentimental nature of the Red Bull system: you either swim with the sharks, or you’re thrown back to the smaller fish.

And then there is Liam Lawson, the man caught in the crossfire, who finds himself in the worst position of all. Despite a year of stellar performances, where he stepped in and impressed every time he was given the chance, Lawson is reportedly no longer even in consideration for the 2026 Red Bull seat. Helmet Marko has apparently confirmed he is not an option.

This outcome is nothing short of brutal. Lawson spent years climbing the treacherous rungs of the Red Bull Junior program, performing well at every level, only to find himself on the outside looking in through no real fault of his own. He is the ultimate victim of circumstance—a perfect storm of Hadjar’s unforeseen and undeniable emergence, combined with a simple lack of available seats.

The cold-blooded math is simple: If Hadjar is promoted to Red Bull and Tsunoda is demoted to Racing Bulls, there is no room for Lawson. The other Racing Bulls seat is reportedly earmarked for Arvid Lindblad, a highly-rated junior driver, closing the final door within the Red Bull family. Lawson’s only remaining, flickering hope for a 2026 drive lies outside the program entirely, with a team like Alpine, but even that is a long shot.

The visible tension between Lawson and Tsunoda in recent races, including on-track incidents, tells the story of how strained the relationship has become. Both drivers know they are fighting for their very futures in the sport, and only one can survive.

This entire saga is a microcosm of the Red Bull driver academy, a system infamous for its cut-throat, pressure-filled, and, as some insiders would call it, “toxic” environment. It’s a place where talent is undeniable but never, ever enough. Timing, politics, and the whims of management play an equal, if not greater, role. Lawson’s predicament proves that even if you do everything asked of you, you can still be left in the cold if the timing isn’t right.

Now, all eyes turn to Mexico City. The weekend is no longer just a race; it’s the final, decisive chapter in a months-long psychological drama. Every lap in practice, every qualifying run, and every race-day decision will be intensely scrutinized by Red Bull management. They are not just watching a race; they are making a final judgment.

When the announcement comes, it will finally end the speculation and set the course for Red Bull’s next chapter. Will they choose Tsunoda’s experience, or will they bet everything on Hadjar’s explosive potential? Either way, the decision will reshape the careers of three young men, confirming one, demoting another, and shattering the dreams of a third. It’s a ruthless game, but in Red Bull’s world, it’s the only one they know how to play.