In the high-octane world of Formula 1, where every thousandth of a second counts, the future of a driver can change in the blink of an eye. For Yuki Tsunoda, the talented Japanese driver for the Visa Cash App RB Formula One Team, that future has never looked more uncertain. While the young driver has shown flashes of brilliance, a storm is brewing within the Red Bull Racing camp, and Tsunoda finds himself at the heart of it. The precariousness of his position is underscored by three critical questions that are sending shockwaves through the paddock: Is rising star Isaac Hadjar being groomed as his replacement? Why are the drivers of the junior team, Racing Bulls, outperforming the occupant of Red Bull’s second seat? And perhaps most damningly, is the second seat at Red Bull Racing “cursed”?

The evidence suggesting that Tsunoda’s days with the Red Bull family are numbered is mounting. A stark comparison of his performance against his former and current teammates paints a worrying picture. While Tsunoda is a formidable talent in his own right, his points tally pales in comparison to the likes of Liam Lawson and, more recently, Isaac Hadjar. Hadjar’s sensational qualifying performance at Zandvoort, where he out-qualified Tsunoda, was a deafening blow to the Japanese driver’s standing within the team. This wasn’t just a case of one driver having a better day at the office; it was a clear signal that the Red Bull hierarchy is closely watching, and Tsunoda is under immense pressure to deliver.

However, to lay the blame solely at Tsunoda’s feet would be a gross oversimplification of a much more complex issue. The problem, it seems, is not just with the driver, but with the very philosophy that underpins Red Bull’s car development. For years, the team has meticulously crafted its cars around the extraordinary and unique driving style of their golden boy, Max Verstappen. This laser-focused approach has brought them unprecedented success, with Verstappen dominating the sport in a way that few have before. But this singular focus has come at a cost. The Red Bull car, a masterpiece of engineering when in the hands of Verstappen, becomes a temperamental and unpredictable beast for any other driver who dares to tame it.

This “Verstappen-centric” design philosophy has created a revolving door for the team’s second seat, a position that has been notoriously difficult to fill since the departure of Daniel Ricciardo. A string of talented drivers, from Pierre Gasly to Alex Albon and now Sergio Pérez, have all struggled to consistently match Verstappen’s pace. This has led to the growing belief that the second seat at Red Bull is not just a challenge, but a “curse” – a career graveyard for even the most promising of talents.

The predicament is further compounded by the stark differences in car development between Red Bull Racing and its junior team, Racing Bulls. While one might expect a seamless transition for drivers moving up from the junior outfit, the reality is far from it. The two teams, despite sharing the same parent company, have vastly different design philosophies. As team principal Laurent Mekies has publicly stated, Red Bull cannot simply draw inspiration from Racing Bulls’ car development to solve their second-seat conundrum. This fundamental divergence in technical approach means that even if a driver excels at Racing Bulls, there is no guarantee of success at the senior team. This creates a bottleneck of talent, with promising young drivers like Tsunoda and Hadjar caught in a system that seems designed to favor only one man.

Faced with this internal crisis, Red Bull is reportedly looking outside its own talent pool for a solution. The news that the team is considering external candidates like IndyCar champion Alex Palou is a damning indictment of their driver development program. It suggests that the team has exhausted its internal options and is willing to break with its long-standing tradition of promoting from within to find a suitable partner for Verstappen. For Tsunoda, this is a worrying development. With potential alternative routes to other teams like Cadillac or Aston Martin being either limited or too far in the future, his options are rapidly dwindling.

The uncertainty surrounding Red Bull’s driver lineup is not just a short-term problem; it has far-reaching implications for the team’s competitiveness in the long run. With the sweeping new technical regulations set to be introduced in 2026, the team’s ability to adapt and innovate will be put to the ultimate test. The “Verstappen-centric” approach that has served them so well in the current era could become their Achilles’ heel in the next. In a future where the cars are radically different, will Verstappen’s unique driving style still be the key to unlocking their full potential? Or will the team’s inability to develop a car that is competitive for two drivers come back to haunt them?

This is where Isaac Hadjar enters the frame. The young Frenchman is not just a potential replacement for Tsunoda; he is a potential cornerstone for Red Bull’s future. In the event that the 2026 car is not to Verstappen’s liking and he chooses to activate an exit clause in his contract, Red Bull will need a new star to build their team around. Hadjar, with his raw talent and impressive performances, could be that star.

As the season unfolds, the pressure on Tsunoda will only intensify. Every race, every qualifying session, will be a referendum on his future. The decision, it seems, has already been made in the corridors of power at Milton Keynes. With multiple candidates vying for the coveted Red Bull seats, the upcoming races will be a crucible, a trial by fire that will define not just the future of these talented young drivers, but the very destiny of the Red Bull Racing dynasty. The drama is far from over, and the world will be watching to see who will rise from the ashes and who will be consumed by the flames of this high-stakes game of musical chairs.