In the summer of 2022, the world of Formula 1 witnessed one of the most tense and surprising transfer sagas in its history. Oscar Piastri, the crown jewel of the Alpine academy, became the center of a fierce contractual dispute that ended with him rejecting the very team that nurtured him to join McLaren. This bold decision not only reshaped Piastri’s career but also created profound ripple effects throughout the entire sport. But have you ever wondered: what would have happened if Oscar Piastri had never left Alpine? What if he had accepted his fate and remained with the French team? A fascinating parallel universe unfolds, one where champions might not be who they are today, and formidable teams could have faded into obscurity.

To paint this picture, we must rewind to the final days of July 2022. Sebastian Vettel suddenly announced his retirement, opening up a coveted seat at Aston Martin. Fernando Alonso, then in the midst of contract extension negotiations with Alpine, swiftly seized this opportunity. Alpine, left shocked and embarrassed, hastily announced that Oscar Piastri would replace Alonso for the 2023 season. However, just hours later, Piastri refuted this claim on social media with a fateful tweet: “I will not be driving for Alpine in 2023.” This was a monumental shock, not just for Alpine but for all of F1, as a young talent dared to publicly defy his parent team.

The F1 Chessboard Scrambled: The Fateful “What Ifs”

Had Piastri stayed at Alpine, the script for the 2023 season would have been drastically different. He would have partnered with Esteban Ocon, forming a youthful and promising lineup. Alpine, which had already planned to promote Piastri to F1 after Alonso’s departure, would have been content to retain its prized talent. The French team might not have achieved breakthrough results, perhaps still finishing sixth in the Constructors’ Championship, but they would have at least secured a highly-rated driver for the future.

Meanwhile, Piastri’s decision to stay would have directly impacted McLaren. In our current timeline, McLaren terminated Daniel Ricciardo’s contract a year early to make way for Piastri. But if Piastri wasn’t available, who would have replaced the “Honey Badger”?

Daniel Ricciardo had endured two disappointing seasons at McLaren in 2021 and 2022. Despite a surprise victory at Monza in 2021, his form had declined so severely that McLaren was actively seeking a way out of their contract. If Piastri wasn’t an option, McLaren would have faced a tough decision. A logical possibility would be Pierre Gasly, a driver at the peak of his powers at AlphaTauri but with seemingly no future at the senior Red Bull team. Gasly would have been an attractive candidate, bringing experience and speed. However, would McLaren have been willing to pay a significant sum to buy out Ricciardo’s contract and then sign Gasly?

Alternatively, McLaren might have opted for a different solution: keeping faith with Ricciardo for one more year to see out his contract. This might seem unlikely given his performance, but finding a top-tier replacement without a hefty contract buyout is a challenge. If Ricciardo had stayed, McLaren likely would have had a worse 2023 season than they did in reality, potentially losing crucial points and slipping down the Constructors’ standings, perhaps even failing to beat Aston Martin.

A Chain Reaction of Consequences: From 2023 to 2025

If Ricciardo remained at McLaren, it would mean Pierre Gasly would have continued with AlphaTauri. This scenario would trigger an incredible domino effect. Nyck de Vries, who made an impressive debut at Monza in 2022, might still have found a seat at Williams replacing Nicholas Latifi, but his role in this wider story would be diminished.

As we move into the 2024 season, the picture becomes even more complex. In our reality, McLaren had an outstanding 2024, challenging Red Bull at the front and positioning Lando Norris as a title contender. But would that have happened with Pierre Gasly partnering Norris instead of Oscar Piastri?

Piastri, while immensely talented, was still developing during his rookie season. He finished the 2024 season in our timeline a significant 82 points behind Norris. Gasly, though an experienced driver, has a history of struggling with difficult cars, and the 2024 McLaren was known to be demanding. Moving to a new team would also require an adaptation period. This could have prevented McLaren from reaching its peak performance immediately. Minor issues in Gasly’s acclimatization could have cost McLaren vital points.

Remember, in our timeline, McLaren beat Ferrari to the 2024 Constructors’ Championship by just 14 points. A small dip in performance from the second driver could have been enough to change that outcome. If Gasly couldn’t deliver the same number of points as Piastri, or needed more time to get up to speed, then Ferrari could very well have clinched the 2024 Constructors’ title. This is a shocking outcome, demonstrating how one young driver’s decision could alter the entire championship landscape.

The 2025 Driver Market and Piastri’s Future

If Ferrari had won the 2024 Constructors’ Championship, it would have been a massive boost for the Italian team and could have shaken up the 2025 driver market. In reality, Lewis Hamilton made the seismic decision to leave Mercedes for Ferrari in 2025. But in this alternate scenario, would Hamilton still have wanted to move to Ferrari if they were already champions? It might have made the Scuderia even more appealing, or it could have motivated Hamilton to stay at Mercedes, feeling his old team still had a fighting chance.

So, what about Oscar Piastri? If he were still at Alpine, his performance might not have been as impressive as what he achieved at McLaren. The 2024 Alpine was not a front-running car, and while Piastri might have still outperformed Ocon, his results would have paled in comparison to his real-world achievements. Nevertheless, he would still be a highly sought-after young talent.

In the volatile 2025 driver market, Piastri could still have been a hot commodity. Mercedes would need a replacement for Hamilton, and Red Bull might also be looking for a new teammate for Max Verstappen. While Mercedes’ Toto Wolff seems to favor promoting from his own junior academy, with drivers like Kimi Antonelli, an experienced and proven talent like Piastri would remain a tempting option.

However, a more plausible scenario might see Piastri being recruited by Red Bull. With Daniel Ricciardo having retired after finishing his McLaren contract, Liam Lawson would have a full season at AlphaTauri to prove himself. If Lawson failed to make a strong impression, or if Red Bull wanted a driver with a bit more experience, Piastri could be the perfect choice to partner Max Verstappen. A Verstappen-Piastri lineup at Red Bull would be a thrilling prospect, creating intense internal competition and potentially challenging Verstappen’s dominance.

A Costly Lesson and The Biggest “What If”

In summary, if Oscar Piastri had never left Alpine, the F1 world would have witnessed a series of events that completely reshaped the sport. Daniel Ricciardo might have ended his F1 career sooner, Pierre Gasly could have had his chance at McLaren, and most significantly, Ferrari might have won the 2024 Constructors’ Championship. Oscar Piastri, instead of being a rising star at McLaren, might have found his way to Red Bull, forming a formidable pairing with Max Verstappen.

This story is more than just an entertaining speculative exercise; it is a powerful reminder of the impact of individual decisions in a fiercely competitive environment like Formula 1. A single tweet, a rejected contract, can alter the course of history, create new champions, and redefine the destinies of entire teams. In this scenario, Alpine did its job correctly but lost a generational talent to the complexities of the market. It just makes you wonder: what other “what if” scenarios are waiting to be explored in the dramatic world of F1?