In the high-stakes, high-octane world of Formula 1, no team personifies relentless, cutthroat ambition quite like Red Bull Racing. It’s less a motorsports team and more a never-ending television drama, a saga of high-profile sackings, shattered dreams, and the constant, unforgiving search for the next generational talent. As the 2026 season and its new regulations loom, this driver dilemma is reaching a fever pitch. With seats in both the main Red Bull team and its sister RB outfit in flux, the question on everyone’s mind is: who will survive the culling?

The speculation is rampant, and the answers, based on performance, politics, and potential, paint a picture of a ruthless shakeup.

The core of the issue, as it has been for years, is the second Red Bull seat. The “poisoned chalice” of racing alongside a titan like Max Verstappen has consumed the careers of talented drivers, one after another. The team is now facing the consequences of its turbulent management, and it seems a new contender is poised to be thrown into the lion’s den.

Rumors have been swirling, and all signs now point to Isack Hadjar.

Hadjar, the young talent lighting up the feeder series, has reportedly been the best-performing non-Verstappen driver in the entire Red Bull stable by a country mile. His string of great performances has not gone unnoticed. While many may not have had him on their radar at the start of the year—with whispers that he wasn’t the fastest, most consistent, or even the most emotionally stable driver—his on-track results have silenced the critics. He has definitively shown that he deserves a shot.

But getting the shot and surviving it are two different things. A promotion to the main Red Bull team is, for almost any other driver, a dream come true. For a Red Bull junior, it’s also a near-certain career suicide. This is the seat that has broken drivers. Yet, it’s an opportunity that cannot be refused. Hadjar cannot turn down that seat out of fear of failure, or fear of what has happened to his predecessors. He will have to take the opportunity with both hands and try to make the most of it.

If Hadjar does, as predicted, make the jump, it would be a relatively harsh, though not entirely unexpected, end to Yuki Tsunoda’s tenure in the top team. Tsunoda’s season has been a story of frustrating inconsistency. After a promising opening weekend, his performance has been, at times, appalling. While he finally put together a strong, much-needed weekend in Baku, it may be too little, too late. To truly make the decision tricky for Red Bull, he needs to maintain that form week in and week out—a feat he has struggled with.

There is, of course, an argument for consistency, especially heading into the new 2026 regulations. Keeping Yuki for another year alongside Max could allow him to settle and provide a stable data point. But Red Bull aren’t exactly the patient type. The team is famously decisive, and patience for a driver who isn’t immediately challenging at the front is virtually non-existent.

What makes Tsunoda’s position even more precarious is the loss of his most powerful ally. For years, one of the biggest reasons Yuki was kept in the Red Bull fold was his deep-rooted connection to Honda. Red Bull never seemed to have ultimate faith in promoting him, only doing so when the Perez situation became untenable. Without the Honda backing, which moves to Aston Martin, Red Bull could have dropped him a long time ago. That protective shield is now gone, leaving his future critically exposed.

While one driver faces a demotion, another faces a potential exit. Liam Lawson’s F1 career has been a rollercoaster of harsh realities. His season has been nothing short of crazy. He started with a two-race stint at the main Red Bull team and was, by all accounts, “absolutely destroyed.” He was quickly knocked back down to the RB team, a demotion that visibly shook his confidence and composure.

To his credit, Lawson has been on a path of resurgence. His recent performances, culminating in a best-ever result in Baku, have made him an interesting prospect once again. But the biggest mark against him retaining any Red Bull-affiliated seat has nothing to do with his recent form. It’s about pride.

There is almost no way Red Bull will re-promote him to the main team after dropping him so unceremoniously after just two races. Regardless of how well he performs, the organization would likely never swallow its pride and admit it made a mistake. If that’s the case—if his path to the top team is permanently blocked—then there is no reason for Red Bull to keep him.

As harsh as it sounds, Lawson becomes a placeholder, occupying a seat that could be used to blood the next generation. It doesn’t help his case that he lacks the major sponsors or corporate backing, like the Honda connection that saved Yuki for so long. Dropping him now, just as he’s regaining his form, would be another brutal chapter in his career. But Red Bull has never been a team to make decisions based on sentiment.

This “next generation” has a name: Arvid Lindblad.

Lindblad is, by all accounts, Red Bull’s next great protégé. He is the new star rising through the ranks, the driver the program is pinning its future hopes on. While he may be on the outside of the F2 title fight right now, his performance is turning heads. He’s won a sprint race, and more recently, his first feature race, showcasing a potent mix of strong defensive driving, excellent tire management, and sharp overtaking prowess.

There’s a strategic reason Red Bull would be keen to promote Lindblad to the RB seat in 2026. Max Verstappen’s long-term future, while secure for now, is always a topic of conversation. It is critically important for Red Bull to have the “next in line” ready, and they clearly believe Lindblad could be that driver. If he truly is the next star, the hope is that Red Bull will actually give him time to develop—perhaps a full two years at RB—rather than throwing him to the wolves alongside Verstappen too soon.

So, what does this all mean for the 2026 grid? The final prediction is a dramatic redrawing of the Red Bull empire.

At the main Red Bull Racing team, Max Verstappen will, of course, be joined by the new challenger, Isack Hadjar.

At the RB team, the lineup will likely be a fascinating blend of old and new: Yuki Tsunoda and Arvid Lindblad.

This predicted RB lineup is perhaps the most telling. Keeping Tsunoda at the sister team, even after “sacking” him from the main seat, serves a cold, calculated purpose. He becomes the benchmark. Yuki has been paired with several decent F1 drivers in his time and has shown himself to be capable and reliable. By placing Lindblad alongside him, Red Bull can get a crystal-clear reading on what their new protégé is really made of.

The Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend certainly made things more complicated, with both Tsunoda and Lawson delivering their best performances of the year. But ultimately, Red Bull likely already knows what it wants to do. It’s just a matter of time. The drama will continue, the saga will roll on, and the 2026 season will simply be the next act in Formula 1’s most ruthless show.