In the high-speed, high-pressure world of Formula 1, a driver’s career can change in the span of a few races. For Japan’s rising star, Yuki Tsunoda, the 2025 season is becoming a grueling test, pushing him into an incredibly precarious position at the prestigious Red Bull Racing team. Whispers and speculation about his future have swirled for months, but as the season enters its final act, the writing on the wall is becoming painfully clear. Fans and experts alike are left asking the one burning question: Where does Yuki Tsunoda go from here?

Fast-tracked from the Racing Bulls to the senior squad with monumental expectations, Tsunoda has been forced to confront a brutal reality alongside reigning champion Max Verstappen. After 14 races, he has managed to secure a meager 12 points—a performance gulf so vast that Red Bull’s legendary patience appears to be wearing thin. The consensus is clear: Tsunoda’s days in the A-team look numbered beyond 2025. This leaves a critical question unanswered: what’s next? Reports from the Japanese outlet Autoport Web hint at two potential lifelines, but both come with their own significant risks and uncertainties, making Tsunoda’s future one of the most intriguing and high-stakes storylines in the current F1 “silly season.”

Yuki Tsunoda’s tenure at Red Bull Racing has started to feel less like a breakthrough and more like a trial run that’s rapidly running out of time. Promoted from the Racing Bulls with the hope that he could finally provide Verstappen with the kind of reliable support the team craves, Tsunoda’s campaign has instead exposed the brutal gap between promise and delivery. Four top-ten finishes from 14 attempts is hardly the return expected from a driver entrusted with one of Formula 1’s most prized seats. The contrast could not be starker: Verstappen remains untouchable at the sharp end of the grid, racking up wins and reinforcing his status as the undisputed leader. By comparison, Tsunoda has been locked in the midfield scrap, unable to consistently harness the power and complexity of Red Bull’s machinery. For a team defined by its insatiable appetite for silverware, that kind of inconsistency is simply unsustainable.

In a paddock where whispers turn into headlines overnight, the idea that Tsunoda’s exit is already inevitable has gained serious traction. Red Bull is not a team known for sentiment; when performance drops, changes follow quickly. And with a queue of hungry junior drivers eager for their shot, the justification for keeping Tsunoda in the senior lineup appears thinner with every passing race weekend.

If Yuki Tsunoda does part ways with Red Bull Racing, the most logical landing spot would be a return to the Racing Bulls. On paper, it looks like a simple solution, but the reality is far more complex and depends heavily on Red Bull’s shifting priorities and the team’s evolving driver shuffle. The rise of Isack Hadjar is a major piece of this puzzle. The Frenchman’s steady climb through the Red Bull Junior system has caught the eye of senior management, and insiders believe he has now leapfrogged Liam Lawson in the hierarchy. Hadjar’s momentum makes him the leading candidate to slot in beside Verstappen, effectively pushing Tsunoda out of contention.

Lawson’s situation only adds more intrigue. Once hailed as a future Red Bull star, his stock has tumbled in recent months. Autoport Web reports that key figures within the organization no longer view him as the “next big thing,” citing patchy results and a string of questionable on-track calls. His collision with Tsunoda at Monza, which left the senior Red Bull car with damage, is rumored to have left a particularly sour taste in the mouths of management. If Lawson’s decline continues, Tsunoda could find the door open again at the Racing Bulls. His past experience with the team, coupled with his familiarity with its structure, would make him an easy fit. Still, for Tsunoda, such a move would feel like a demotion rather than progress—a step back into the shadows after tasting life at the very top of Red Bull’s hierarchy.

Outside of Red Bull’s tight-knit system, another door could still crack open for Yuki Tsunoda. Whispers from the paddock suggest Alpine, now reshaped under the returning influence of Flavio Briatore, has been casting a wide net for future driver options, and Tsunoda’s name is firmly on that list. Adding weight to the speculation is Pierre Gasly, Tsunoda’s former teammate and longtime ally. The Frenchman is believed to be lobbying in his favor, pointing not just to Tsunoda’s raw pace but also to his character and work ethic. In Formula 1, where backroom politics and personal loyalties can shift the balance as much as lap times, such backing could prove invaluable.

Yet, Alpine’s own instability makes this potential move anything but straightforward. The team has weathered a storm of leadership reshuffles and inconsistent performance, leaving its long-term vision under constant question. With decisions about their 2026 driver pairing unlikely until the close of the season, Tsunoda may find himself in a precarious holding pattern. Waiting for Alpine could keep him in play, but it also risks leaving him stranded if the team’s priorities shift elsewhere.

For Yuki Tsunoda, the next few months could define the trajectory of his Formula 1 career. Each race between now and the season’s end is more than just a contest for points; it is a chance to silence doubters and prove he deserves to remain on the grid. A string of consistent top-ten results could transform his prospects, keeping alive the possibility of either rejoining the Racing Bulls or securing a lifeline with Alpine.

Qualifying has long been both a proving ground and a stumbling block for Yuki Tsunoda. At his best, he has shown the raw one-lap speed to thrust himself into the thick of the midfield battle, and Monza was a prime example. Keeping close to Verstappen in the early sessions was no small achievement, especially given the sheer pace of the Dutchman and the inherent limitations of the car. Observers took note, as Tsunoda has often faced criticism for inconsistency and costly errors in qualifying earlier in his career. The pressure of Saturdays frequently unraveled him, with mistakes undermining his grid position before the race even began.

Yet, in 2024, there have been glimpses of growth. At circuits like Imola and Montreal, Tsunoda repeatedly reached Q3, converting that composure into strong starting spots. The challenge, however, has been translating those positions into meaningful race results. While his qualifying form has improved, Sundays remain the hurdle keeping him from shaking off the doubts that surround his future.

The problem is that the numbers paint a bleak picture: a handful of points from 14 races simply does not align with the profile of a driver expected to hold one of the sport’s coveted seats. Unless Tsunoda can shift gears and deliver results that force Red Bull and other teams to take notice, the narrative will continue to work against him. In a sport where reputations can crumble as quickly as they are built, his window of opportunity is rapidly closing, and every lap now carries the weight of his Formula 1 future.

Tsunoda’s predicament is hardly unique within the Red Bull ecosystem. The program has long been notorious for its cut-throat philosophy of fast-tracking young talent while ruthlessly discarding those deemed surplus to requirements. Daniil Kvyat’s sudden demotion in 2016 and Pierre Gasly’s mid-season ousting in 2019 serve as stark reminders of just how unforgiving the system can be. In that context, Tsunoda’s age of 25 already places him in a precarious position—no longer the exciting rookie, but a driver Red Bull may perceive as past his developmental peak.

And yet, reducing Tsunoda’s value to cold statistics ignores a broader picture. Beyond the stopwatch, he carries symbolic and commercial weight. As Japan’s first full-time Formula 1 driver since Kamui Kobayashi, he embodies a link to an important market and a passionate fan base. That connection resonates not only with Red Bull but also with Honda, whose partnership with the team remains politically and commercially significant despite the impending shift to Aston Martin in 2026. In this way, Tsunoda straddles the line between performance metrics and strategic value—a balance that could influence how Red Bull, or even rival teams, evaluate his future.

The current landscape is no different. Isack Hadjar’s surge, Liam Lawson’s fading prospects, and Tsunoda’s own uncertain standing all feed into the same narrative: Red Bull will always prioritize Verstappen’s dominance and the health of its talent pipeline above sentiment or loyalty. The next few races will likely decide whether Tsunoda clings to a reprieve at the Racing Bulls or gambles on a new opportunity with Alpine. Should he fail to overturn his current record, the possibility of his Formula 1 journey ending far earlier than anyone expected becomes alarmingly real.